Within the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump carried Tennessee’s Seventh Congressional District by 22 factors. Final night time, in a particular election to signify the district, the Republican Matt Van Epps received by solely 9 factors, defeating State Consultant Aftyn Behn, a Democrat.
Trump celebrated the result on Reality Social as a “BIG Congressional WIN,” however the margin of victory in a deep-red district is ominous for Republicans. Van Epps underperformed Trump by 13 proportion factors, an indication that the get together is susceptible heading into the 2026 midterms. If Democrats may replicate that shift in all places subsequent yr, they’d acquire upwards of 40 seats within the Home and take again the Senate.
However final night time’s end result additionally provides Democrats a cautionary story. An off-year particular election in December is exactly the form of low-turnout state of affairs wherein the get together’s extremely educated base at the moment dominates. In such races, Democrats most likely must run up the rating by much more than 13 factors earlier than they will have an actual shot at successful each homes of Congress subsequent yr. And in the event that they’d nominated a extra average candidate, they most likely would have.
Behn, a 36-year-old former neighborhood organizer, has the form of progressive background that may not damage in a Democratic main however can change into an actual legal responsibility in a common election—together with an in depth path of quotes that ended up getting used in opposition to her. She advised a Nashville interviewer in 2020, “I’m a really radical particular person.” In now-deleted tweets from the identical yr, she advocated for dissolving the Nashville police division and wished a “Good morning, particularly to the 54% of Individuals that imagine burning down a police station is justified.” She mentioned on a podcast that she hated nation music, bachelorette events, and the town of Nashville itself, and instructed on a distinct episode that “birthers”—a gender-neutral time period for “women and men who can provide beginning”—ought to refuse to procreate as a type of “collective bargaining.”
Republican teams seized on these quotes within the ultimate few weeks of the marketing campaign, spending tens of millions of {dollars} on assault advertisements to ensure as many citizens within the district as doable heard them. This tactic seems to have labored to a point. A 13-point over-performance sounds big, however in up to date political phrases, it’s pedestrian. The president is deeply unpopular, and the Democratic coalition has grown ever whiter, older, richer, extra extremely educated, and extra feminine—a recipe for top turnout in off years. Certainly, in contrast with different Democrats who ran in particular elections for Congress this yr, Behn’s efficiency is under common. Democrats averaged a staggering over-performance of 18 factors in races that befell in Florida, Virginia, and Arizona.
The anomaly of the Tennessee outcomes—Behn misplaced, however she over-performed, however she most likely under-over-performed—has reignited an interminable intra-party debate. Some members of the Democratic left argue that the important thing to successful elections is mobilization: nominating inspiring progressive candidates who excite the get together’s voters, driving up Democratic turnout. Moderates (and loads of extra pragmatic leftists) counter that this by no means works, and that successful—particularly in Trump districts—requires persuasion: operating candidates with sufficient average positions to win over some conservative voters.
Behn’s candidacy was a take a look at case for the primary concept. “This Tennessee particular congressional election is about MOBILIZATION,” the candidate wrote in October. The Democratic Nationwide Committee chair, Ken Martin, advised The Bulwark final week that the race was “not about persuading voters; it’s about turning them out.” Following Behn’s loss, some progressives doubled down on that concept, arguing {that a} average candidate wouldn’t have carried out higher than Behn did, as a result of the bottom wouldn’t have turned out. They argue that if Behn didn’t do in addition to different special-election candidates have, it’s as a result of her race drew rather more nationwide consideration, together with from Trump himself, resulting in the barrage of assault advertisements. After all, these assault advertisements may need had much less chunk if the candidate hadn’t personally offered a lot fodder for them.
One factor that retains the motivation–persuasion debate going is that, in any particular electoral race, either side have an unfalsifiable argument. Win or lose, they will argue that the Democratic candidate would have fared higher if solely that they had tried tougher to attraction to swing voters or if solely that they had tried tougher to rock the vote.
The load of the proof, nonetheless, strongly favors the persuasion concept. There is no such thing as a actual trade-off between persuasion and turnout, as a result of sporadic voters should not hardcore progressives ready to be activated. In ideological phrases, they’re, the truth is, very comparable to swing voters; if something, sporadic voters are much more average and conservative. As a result of these voters are comparable to one another, the identical fundamental techniques are likely to work with each teams: specializing in the financial system and stressing that you’ve got mainstream somewhat than far-left views about cultural points.
Final night time’s particular election confirmed the bounds of a turnout-alone technique. If ever that method goes to work, it’s in an off-year particular election. Within the midterms, the Democratic turnout benefit is all however assured to shrink. (This shall be even more true within the 2028 presidential election.) Sooner or later, the time will come to face the complete citizens.
Within the four-way Democratic main for Tennessee’s Seventh, solely 31,000 voters forged a poll, fewer than half the quantity that voted for Behn yesterday. Behn received that main with 28 p.c of the vote, beating the businessman Darden Copeland by fewer than 1,000 votes. Copeland had run on reducing the nationwide debt and wrote in a candidate survey that he fashions himself on Dick Gephardt, the pro-life Democratic congressman who as soon as chaired the centrist Democratic Management Council.
Democrats are in a robust place heading into 2026. One of many solely issues standing of their method is the chance of them nominating extra Aftyn Behns, when Darden Copelands are staring them within the face.
